A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
